In today's Wall Street Journal (6/6/17, subscription required), Burton Malkiel discusses the dismal state of active management using the SPIVA data as support. He also address the question, "what if everyone indexed." Here are excerpts:
For years S&P has served as the de facto scorekeeper demonstrating the dismal record of “active” portfolio managers. During 2016, two-thirds of active managers of large-capitalization U.S. stocks underperformed the S&P 500 large-capital index. Nor were managers any better in the supposedly less efficient small-capitalization universe. Over 85% of small-cap managers underperformed the S&P Small-Cap Index.
When S&P measured performance over a longer period, the results got worse. More than 90% of active managers underperformed their benchmark indexes over a 15-year period. Equity mutual funds do beat the market sometimes, but seldom can they do it consistently, year over year.
The same findings have been documented in international markets. Since 2001, 89% of actively managed international funds had inferior performance. Even in less efficient emerging markets, index funds outperformed 90% of active funds. Indexing has proved its merit in various bond markets as well.
...What would happen if everyone began investing in index funds? The possibility exists that they could grow to such a size that they would distort the prices of individual stocks. The paradox of index investing is that the stock market needs some active traders to make markets efficient and liquid.
But the substantial management fees that active managers charge give them an incentive to perform this function. They will continue to market their services with the claim that they have above-average insights that enable them to beat the market, even though they cannot all achieve above-average market returns. And even if the proportion of active managers shrinks to a tiny percentage of the total, there will still be more than enough of them to make prices reflect information.